Europe’s Election Rocked by Snap Parliament Announcement

We begin in France and in what’s being described as a huge political gamble with French President Emmanuel Macron calling a snap parliamentary vote after his alliance suffered a big defeat by the populist right in European Union elections. Mr Macron said he couldn’t ignore the result and dissolving parliament was an act of trust in the French people. The National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen is on course to win a record 32% of the vote in the elections for the European Parliament. That is more than double the coalition which supports President Macron. He responded by calling the unexpected snap election.

The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation, but also for Europe, for France’s position in Europe and in the world. And I say this even though we have just celebrated with the whole world, the Normandy landing. And as in a few weeks, we’ll welcome the world for the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Yes, the far-right is both the result of the impoverishment of the French and the downgrading of our country. So, at the end of this day, I cannot act as if nothing had happened. Added to this situation is a fever which has gripped public and parliamentary debate in our country in recent years. A disorder which I know worries you, sometimes shocks you, and to which I do not intend to give in.

(01:27)
However, today, the challenges that present themselves to us, whether external dangers, climate change and its consequences or threats to our own cohesion, these challenges require clarity in our debates. Ambition for the country and respect for every French person, this is why after having carried out the consultations provided for an Article 12 of our Constitution, I decided to put back in your hands the choice of our parliamentary future by the vote. In a few moments, I will sign the decree convening the legislative elections, which will be held on June 30 for the first round, and July 7 for the second round.

For the French far-right, the result is one to celebrate. Here’s Marine Le Pen.

The French have spoken and this historic election shows that when the people vote, the people win. By giving more than 32% to the National Rally, the French have just given us the highest score, all parties combined in 40 years. It’s a real emotion to see this beautiful popular force rising up throughout the country.

Elsewhere in Europe, voters snubbed the governing parties of Germany, Spain and Belgium. Results show that overall the center parties will be the largest bloc in the European Parliament. Here’s its President Roberta Metsola.

In this parliament, it doesn’t work with a government and an opposition. It works with majorities. We can see the constructive pro-European center has held and it is that center that will be projected to build on the European projects that we need to work with.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has described the results across the EU as a victory for the center.

Now, this election has given us two messages. First, there remains a majority in the center for strong Europe and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the center is holding. But it is also true that the extremes on the left and on the right have gained support and this is why the result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the center.

Well, my colleague, Christian Fraser, is in Brussels and he was watching the results as they unfolded throughout the night and sent this up some.

The polls are closed and in the coming hours the final projection will be worked out here from the results within the 27 countries. On stage behind me is Roberta Metsola, the European Parliamentary president, who is about to give us the latest projection. We already know from the exit polls in these 27 countries that there’s been a definitive shift to the right. So in Austria, the Freedom Party top of the pile, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands taking seven seats this time around. Marine Le Pen in France, a record 32% of the vote. The AFD in Germany coming second to the CDU/CSU there in Germany. So that is one story tonight, but already this election has provided us with some extraordinary news from France where Emmanuel Macron, whose party slumped to 15% of the vote called a snap election tonight, parliamentary elections coming the last week in June and the first week in July. That is an enormous gamble on the back of a pretty humiliating defeat tonight in the European parliamentary elections.

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You can see behind me that we’re about to get the latest projection and here it is. And you can see that the EPP, which is the biggest group in the European Parliament, is up from 176 seats to 189. The big losers on the night, the Greens from 72 all the way down to 52. But look on the right-hand side of that chart, it is the European Conservatives and Reformists, which are up from 69 and Identity and Democracy up from 49 to 58. Those are the two groupings that include the populace and the heart-right. There seems to be some confusion from the figures that they have put up there. Roberta Metsola actually did say that they will continue to check these results and they will be refined through the evening because the main polls in Italy have all closed only just a short time ago.

(06:12)
And so, with 76 seats in the Parliament and that will very much affect the projections that they are putting out here. What does all this mean at the end of the day? Well, the big story I suppose, aside from those rather dramatic headlines about the hard-right is that the center and the center-right have largely held, they will control the majority of the seats. And on the right, there tend to be some quite disparate groupings. They don’t see eye-to-eye on issues like Ukraine for instance. So Georgia Maloney, very much in favor of sending arms to Ukraine, whereas Marine Le Pen has been much softer on Russia. So it may be issue by issue where those groups on the right try and work together, but certainly it is the center and the center-right which will control the agenda. The question is how much will they need those parties to get some of the things through over the next five years?

(07:07)
Things like green transition policy, migration and borders, the European budget still to be decided. There are billions of euros being put into the industrial defense strategy here in Europe as well. Those are all big questions. Of course, integration and enlargement always a thorny issue here in Brussels as well. So the impact of that shift to the right is still to be worked out, I would think in the coming months as the parties arrange themselves in the various groupings. No question what the story is here tonight though, the shift to the right and a very big backward step for the Greens and the centrists.

Christian Fraser there, who’s covering these European elections for us in Brussels. Well, let’s go live to Brussels now and get reaction from James Kanter, who is a political journalist based there hosting the podcast, EU Scream. James, good morning to you.

Good morning.

So the dust is starting to settle a little. Give us your reaction to this result. Were you expecting this dominance of the center-right and far-right?

There was certainly an expectation that Europe would be moving rightwards and after all, there are a growing number of governments that are in alliance with the far-right nationally. And so, in many ways, the result that we saw on Sunday was sort of a confirmation of that. Now, I mean, your previous reporter, as the reporter said, it does look like the center will hold. However, the center of gravity of the European Parliament has most certainly moved rightwards.

And of course, in France, we’ve seen the immediate reaction on the part of Emmanuel Macron calling for a parliamentary election there. I mean, for him in particular, it was a pretty shocking result. Would you say?

I would. I mean, this is the big story of these European elections. President Macron called these snap elections before the Olympic Games no less. It is seen as a huge step, a giant gang gamble. It’s sort of a poker move with a very uncertain outcome. And it doesn’t just put the future of French policy in question, but to some degree, European policy. France, after all with Germany, is part of this duo that essentially powers the EU. And having France with a far right potentially in government and pulling the strings and a significantly more right-leaning European Parliament, that makes some big questions facing Europe even more stark.

And in terms of Ursula von der Leyen and her future, do you think that it is likely she’ll be re-elected as European Commission president?

Well, she holds the cards at the moment because her party, the center-right, the EPP did get a very strong result. Now, she could continue this traditional grand alliance with the socialists and the liberals, but it’s not going to be easy negotiations. And there still is this open question as to whether she will ally with the Greens in order to ensure a very stable majority or possibly with one of these radical right groups, probably the MEPs from Georgia Malone’s party in Italy, the Brothers of Italy. So there’s a lot to play for here still, but it does look indeed like Ursula von der Leyen will have another five-year term as president of the European Commission.

And just briefly, James, as you mentioned, she may choose to align with the Greens. Their slice of the pie has shrunk and the EU has been trying to be a leader when it comes to hitting climate change targets, sustainability goals, etc. But that is likely to be watered down more, is it not going forward?

We’ve already seen it watered down, so it’s almost certain that as part of these negotiations, the question of what will happen to the so-called Green Deal will be front and center.

Okay.

And one can imagine that that will be absolutely center stage in these negotiations.

All right.