Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne had to resign. She knew it since the drama around the immigration bill last month, because since she's been named Prime Minister in 2022 for the past 18 months, she struggled with the lack of majority in Parliament. She struggled to pass the controversial pension reform. Then you had the whole drama around this immigration bill in December where the reform was dismissed. Then it came back. (00:30) A compromise was found with the support of the far right, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen, something that was unbearable for Macron's more moderate part of Macron's Camp. So Élisabeth Borne knew that this new year, 2024, was also a year for the new momentum. Macron still has three and a half years remaining in his mandate. So he had to kickstart this new year with some fresh faces. We don't know yet exactly who is going to replace Élisabeth Borne, but one favorite name is emerging. (01:08) It is the current very young and very popular education minister, Gabriel Attal. He's only 34 years old. He used to hold the budget portfolio, and he's only been education minister for just six months, but he's gained massive popularity already with his education reform. He banned the Muslim dress abaya from French schools. He's talking about perhaps instating the uniform in French schools, which would be quite revolutionary for France. A lot of his reforms are very popular. The only problem if Gabriel Attal is named is that he could take some of the spotlight away from Emmanuel Macron.
Speaker 2 (01:53): Well, in speaking of that potential replacement, how does that change Macron's reform agenda going forward?
Speaker 1 (02:01): We should know, hopefully the name of this new Prime Minister this morning and the name of the other members of the next government over the next few days. In theory, the heavyweights such as Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister, or Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister, in theory, they should remain in place. (02:19) But what could change is the overall popularity of Macron's government, who's been very unpopular since his re-election in 2022. That could also have an impact for the upcoming European elections in June. Currently, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen is clearly leading in the polls with about 30% of voting intentions. Whereas Macron's camp has less than 20% in those polls. (02:48) Of course, it's a big year as well for France because you're going to have the Paris Olympics starting at the end of July. So that could also have an impact on the overall popularity of Macron and his government. And Macron, as you know, cannot run again in 2027. So perhaps changing the government now would also be a way to try and block Marine Le Pen from being elected in 2027.