Putin Says He Won't Restore Grain Deal Until West Meets His Demands Transcript

Vladimir Putin says a deal allowing Ukraine to safely export grain through the Black Sea will not be restored unless the West meets his demands. The Russian leader made those remarks after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan on the southern coast of Russia today. Ships are currently using a temporary corridor from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports after Russia refused to extend the grain deal back in July.

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The Turkey and UN brokered agreement remains critical to supplying wheat and other food products from Ukraine to parts of the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Retired Brigadier General Peter Zwack joins us now for more on this story. He served in Moscow from 2012 to 2014 as a US Senior Defense official and at attache to the Russian Federation. Now, he is a global fellow at the Wilson Center. Thanks so much for being with us.

Thank you for having me. Now, this is a really, really complex issue and I’m ready for your questions.

Yeah. I want to start with asking you what Vladimir Putin wants from the West in exchange for this grain deal and whether that agreement is really essential to averting an international food crisis.

Well, we’ve already been underway with back and forth related to food prices. This grain deal, which was announced to great fanfare and it was quite an initiative last year, involved Russia, Ukraine, Turkey as an interlocutor and the United Nations, and they did basically hold it together for the bulk of the year. Now, Putin will say that within the grain deal that they’re still being sanctioned, that Russian food stuffs and grain aren’t getting, if you will, the same coverage. There’s a lot of, I think, posturing here.

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Erdogan, the Turkish president, as you said, went to Sochi to try to, and he was very much involved in the original deal, to try to get the Russians to move on. I believe that Putin is frankly playing it both ways. Yes, he would like to get better prices for Russia and all that, but at the same point, he will try to put leverage and pressure on the West and the people that support that. Now, putting pressure on Putin, and I’ll stop here, is the fact that out in the developing world, if you will, the South and Africa, many of those countries are generally supportive of the Russian position regarding Ukraine.

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Russia blocking the grain deal is not popular in these countries because these countries that need the grain aren’t getting the grain. I think Putin is also feeling some stress on that front.

Okay, that’s a really interesting point. We also know, Peter, that Putin met with the president of Turkey just hours after Russian forces had reportedly launched a drone attack that was targeting infrastructure, obviously really critical to Ukraine’s grain exports. What do you think may happen if the deal doesn’t go through? Do you expect attacks like that will escalate?

Well, I mean, they’ve been going on for quite some time. Yes, those were into Odessa, which is now the primary port, a transit port for Ukrainian shipping. Yes, and the Russians have been also bombarding, if you will, grain terminals along the Danube River, along the Romanian border. It’s been quite dangerous. I think there’s posturing, but there’s fury too. But this I think is counterproductive for Russia because it calls into stark clarity the viciousness of the Russian position and how it will very quickly default to violence if it doesn’t get its political way.

I also want to ask you, Peter, about some political changes happening right now in Ukraine. We know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has nominated politician Rustem Umerov to now replace defense minister who is outgoing, Oleksiy Reznikov. What’s behind this shakeup?

Well, I think that I’m going to take a glass half full position here. Yes, nobody likes to see a valued partner in the middle of a war going through major turnover, if you will, in their government. I was in Ukraine just two months ago and we visited the Ukrainian recently stood up anti-corruption agency. Zelenskyy is putting major effort to get a control on the corruption that has plagued Ukraine since the Soviet era, but it is much better than it was.

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It was not necessarily Reznikov, the Minister of Defense, that was involved per se, but people under him, organizations under him, whether working to sell food stuffs at inflated prices to Ukrainian troops or recruiting recruiters, recruiting offices where they were working deals to try to help people if they’re willing to pay Ukrainians to get out of the war. All of this is piling up. The war is incredibly existential for Ukraine.

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But friends, the allegations of corruption are also existential for Ukraine because of the criticism it will get from us and our allies and friends about, why are we throwing money into a corrupt government? This is actually a good move, though painful at the time. I believe it will not significantly affect the Ukrainian counter offensive.

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The man that they’re bringing in, as you mentioned, Rustem Umerov, seems to be a really, really competent guy, a Tatar of Crimean background. He has that link too. We’re just going to have to see how it plays out. I believe this was painful, but a positive move.

And perhaps a move that was more targeted towards optics than policy?

I think part of it. I think optics is certainly part of it, but so much of this is optics, as you know.

Brigadier General Peter Zwack, thanks so much for your time and your perspective. We appreciate this.

As always. Take care.

Okay, speak soon.