Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, let's just bring you a bit of breaking news coming from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. There's been a lot of discussion about the use of these ATACMS missiles that the US has provided for Ukraine and allowed them to use inside Russia. Well, we're hearing from Russian sources the debris of one ATACMS missile fell on the territory of a military facility inside Russia in the Bryansk region. This is coming from the Russian Defense Ministry via RIA.
(00:32)
The Russian anti-missile system apparently downed five out of six of these missiles, and the Russian Defense Ministry says Ukraine hit Russia with these missiles. Let's bring in our security and defense editor, Deborah Haynes, who joins us from Rio de Janeiro, where the G20 is taking place. Deborah, the fact that we knew that Ukraine were going to be able to use these missiles in a slightly different way, well, certainly with a further reach, this perhaps comes as no surprise. The fact that Russia says that these missiles have been used, can we believe them here?
Deborah Haynes (01:09):
Well, the Ukrainian military said earlier today that it did launch an attack against Russian targets in the Bryansk region. They have not confirmed the use of these Army Tactical Missile System, ATACMS ballistic missiles, the weapon system that the US has supplied to Ukraine and has now given permission to Ukraine to use beyond its borders inside Russia. But that should be no surprise. What benefit does it give to Ukraine to confirm the use of these weapons? The only way that they want to demonstrate their use is by actually firing them. So it is worth listening to what the Russian Defense Ministry is claiming.
(01:56)
And according to Russian reports, it's saying that the Ukrainians have fired six of these ATACMS missiles into Russian territory, claiming that five were shot down, one, therefore, clearly got through. It'd be interesting to understand the extent of the damage caused by these missiles. But the actual tactical use of the systems is one thing, the strategic response from Russia could well be another. You have the Russian president up until now warning the West of dire consequences should the US, or the UK for that matter, grant the Ukrainians the permission to use these longer range missile systems.
(02:43)
For the US, it's the ATACMS ballistic missile, for the UK, it's the Storm Shadow cruise missile, that should they grant that permission that they are playing with fire, that they could trigger a global conflict. And it's no coincidence therefore that the Russians today are announcing or finalizing what was already in the planning, this lowering of the threshold of when Russia would consider using nuclear weapons in response to an attack. Under this updated doctrine, the Russian military could resort to a nuclear strike if the country is under conventional attack, which is a lowering, for example, the kinds of missiles that you're seeing at the moment, which is a different change of words.
(03:34)
Before, the caveat of when a nuclear retaliation would be considered by Russia was in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional attack that threatened the very existence of the state. Of course, we know, and British and American officials repeatedly say, that Russia does not want a nuclear war because there would be no winners, but clearly, an incredibly important and worrying, but obviously, unsurprising development.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Deborah, thank you very much for that. And on the fact that Russia has talked about changing their nuclear doctrine, we just had a statement from the UK Prime Minister's spokesperson saying it would be fair to say that the nuclear doctrine move from Moscow is the latest example of irresponsibility that we've seen from the depraved Russian government. So, Deborah, a strongly worded response from the UK government to what President Putin has announced today.
Deborah Haynes (04:37):
Yes, and I think we just have to wait and see how Russia does respond. The US and the UK officials have publicly and privately for a long time now cautioned against heeding Russian nuclear saber-rattling, believing that it's intended to delay or to defer decisions by Western allies to give increased support to Ukraine instead for the UK, and well, for the US in particular in this instance. Joe Biden is reported to have given this permission to the Ukrainians to use these longer range ballistic missile systems on Russian soil. Remember, these are weapons that have been used against Russian targets inside Ukraine for a while now.
(05:25)
But he made that decision in response to escalation on the Russian side with the introduction of thousands of North Korean soldiers into the fight inside Russia battling a Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk region. It's interesting though that these strikes, and we await confirmation if they were ATACMS missiles used in the strike against the Bryansk region, it's not inside Kursk. So it would, if it is confirmed, suggest that the Americans have given a wider remit for Ukraine to be able to launch these weapons against targets that they deem to be a threat to their country. And that really does underline the US and the British thinking here. They say, when they talk about it, that this isn't about attacking Russia, it's about defending Ukraine.
(06:17)
Russia has been able to use the fact that Ukraine has had its hands tied by these limitations in the use of the weapons that they've been given by the West, not being able to strike deep into Russia from where Russia is launching long-range missile attacks, drone attacks, aircraft strikes on Ukrainian territory. So this really is about trying to even out the battlefield, make it a fairer fight. But one final point too, it's not a game-changing war-ending development for Ukraine. There are limitations with the use of these new weapons systems, not just in the range, but also in the quantity. For example, for British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, we don't know yet whether the UK has granted the Ukrainians permission to use them, but we do know that there is only a very finite stockpile of them and they take a long time to build and replenish the supplies.